They're objectively an elite team in all three phases. However, I Know Better than to bet against Patrick Mahomes when he is being given points, especially if I'm being afforded more than a field goal. He has won eight of the 11 games he's played in the NFL as the betting underdog -- which is absurd -- and he's ATS in those 11 games.

Sometimes in sports we just know better than numbers, and betting on Mahomes to defy mathematical probabilities is one of those cases. Moody: It is surprising to see the spread. Don't underestimate Detroit on the road outside of Ford Field.

The Lions are against the spread this season and as an underdog. Given some of the red flags the 49ers have shown against quality competition at home, this game will be closer than the spread suggests. The 49ers might also be without Deebo Samuel following an unimpressive win over the Packers in the divisional round.

San Francisco is against the spread in its past six games at home. The Lions are one of four franchises that have yet to make it to the Super Bowl. Head coach Dan Campbell has them one win away from changing that. Since Campbell has been the Lions' head coach, Detroit is against the spread as an underdog of four or more points.

The Lions could win this game. Fulghum: The spread does not surprise me, in fact, it further validates my belief that the 49ers are the team that is going to win the Super Bowl this year.

I am comfortable betting San Francisco -7 in this spot. Yes, the Lions have been a very fun story all year long. They are a legitimately good football team. But the San Francisco 49ers are a legitimate juggernaut. I see no way in which the Lions are able to contain the 49ers passing attack whether Deebo Samuel is healthy or not.

I struggle to see Jared Goff and the Lions' offense matching the level of efficiency they were able to maintain against the Rams and Bucs while playing in the comfortable confines of Ford Field.

The 49ers also have the situational advantage of an extra day of rest. Perhaps this is confirmation bias since San Francisco was my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, but I truly believe they are going to win and cover this game.

Walder: I just can't get past these numbers: In terms of EPA per play the 49ers' passing offense ranks first and the Lions' passing defense ranks 30th.

That is a huge, huge, huge mismatch. Brock Purdy is coming off a rough game but it was in the rain and I'd rather trust the sample of the larger season. The Lions have had a nice run and are a good football team. But I'd like to bank on either 49ers -7 or 49ers team total over Moody: Rashee Rice OVER He has surpassed this line in six of his past 10 games.

Over that time frame, Rice has averaged 8. In the divisional round against the Bills, in which Patrick Mahomes had only 23 pass attempts, Rice caught all four targets for 47 receiving yards. The Ravens' secondary is formidable since they allow the fifth-fewest passing yards per game.

However, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes will certainly try to exploit one defensive tendency of the Ravens. Baltimore has used 2-high safeties on Against 2-high safeties, Rice has had a great deal of success creating separation while catching Schatz: Allow me to agree with Eric on Rashee Rice OVER On top of Rice's success and the desire of the Chiefs' offense to get him, instead of other receivers, the ball, the Ravens had a relative weakness covering No.

That weakness will be exacerbated if Marlon Humphrey is unable to go because of his calf injury. Fulghum: Here are the stat lines for the past five quarterbacks who have faced this Detroit Lions defense:.

Given that yards is the lowest amount allowed by Aaron Glenn's defense over the past month, I will happily bet on Brock Purdy OVER Purdy was far from his best against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round, but the wet weather is a legitimate reason why.

It clearly affected his accuracy on more than a few throws. Fortunately for the 49ers, the weather forecast for Sunday is pristine.

It will be warm with no precipitation, providing optimal conditions for Kyle Shanahan's offense. Samuel's potential absence is a concern, but even if he's not available the Niners can still shred this pass defense. Walder: Nick Bosa UNDER 0. Bosa will be facing Penei Sewell , one of the best tackles in the NFL.

That's tough enough, but Jared Goff is also one of the more sack avoidant quarterbacks with a 4. All of that sets up an unfriendly environment for Bosa, who last recorded a sack on Dec.

My model makes the under Moody: Christian McCaffrey OVER The Lions defense allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game during the regular season, and that trend has continued into the playoffs. McCaffrey has a significant advantage as a receiver out of the backfield against Detroit's linebackers and I'd be shocked if 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan doesn't exploit that weakness.

McCaffrey's averaged Regardless of Deebo Samuel's availability, this line represents McCaffrey's floor, but not his ceiling. Moody: Travis Kelce OVER 5. There might be even more opportunities for Kelce underneath against a Ravens defense that relies heavily on 2-high safeties.

The rapport between Kelce and Patrick Mahomes is undeniable. That being said, the veteran tight end could make league history against the Ravens. Kelce is close to being the NFL's all-time leader in postseason receptions.

Decimal odds: Decimal odds, also called European odds, are one of the other formats used to present betting odds. Favorite: The favorite is the team expected to win the game outright. Favorites have a negative sign in front of their spread and money line odds.

Fractional odds: British fractional odds are the final type of odds used in sports betting. Futures: These can be some of the most interesting odds to monitor, as they relate to things such as championship winner or division winner.

Most sportsbooks update their futures odds on a weekly basis, giving fans a chance to see how their team stacks up in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Home-field advantage: One thing that is a factor in every NFL game is home-field advantage, which changes the odds based on which team is playing at home.

Some teams have a bigger advantage than others, as their crowd noise or location can adjust the odds more significantly than others. Hook: If the betting odds have a half-point attached to them, that is called the hook.

The hook makes it impossible for the betting result to end in a tie, as NFL games do not have half points. Juice: Also known as vigorish or vig, the juice is the amount factored into the odds by oddsmakers. Line movement: NFL odds generally do not move as much as other sports due to the accuracy of the betting market, but they still feature line movement due to various reasons.

Weather, injuries or large bets are all reasons for line movement on NFL games. Money line: The money line is the odds related to the winner of the game with no point spread involved.

Favorites have negative odds, while underdogs have positive odds in an American odds format. Oddsmaker: Someone who sets betting odds and lines is an oddsmaker. Some oddsmakers create their own betting odds originators , while other oddsmakers copy odds that are already in the market.

These are also used for some futures odds, such as how many games a team will win in a season. The betting odds have not determined a favorite or an underdog, so they are usually good games to watch. Spread: The point spread levels the playing field between two teams, as it is the number of points the favorite is expected to win by.

They are denoted by a positive number in the betting odds. The three primary types of betting odds are American money line , fractional British and decimal European. They are alternate ways of presenting the same odds, offering the same payout in each scenario.

The percentage probability of an event occurring can be converted and presented in any of the odds offered. Favorites are always priced with a negative sign in front of their spread or money line, while underdogs have a positive sign in front of theirs. If a team is

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